What we know
After several weeks with limited volatility, trading had widened in the past week or two leading up to and following the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday 16 September. Opening at 16.15 the Rand Dollar reached 16.40 on Wednesday for a range of 25c for the week.
The Fed increased the base lending rate by 25 basis points landing at 4%, the first increase in three years. The decision led to further Dollar momentum as the Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened and remained above 100 since the announcement.
Locally, The Rand will remain under pressure as the interest rate differential has narrowed, making the Dollar a relatively more attractive investment. With the SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday, expectations have shifted toward an increase as opposed to keeping rates unchanged as pursue the 3% inflation target which may even the playing field and provide some ZAR support.
What others say
Moneyweb – Diesel refunds set to exit the Vat system
“Standalone refund system promises greater visibility, with both users and sellers required to register. Tax experts are concerned about how multiple supplier relationships, compliance requirements, logbooks and supporting records will be managed.“
AXIOS – Iran war causes global pain at the pump
“The Iran war is driving fuel prices higher worldwide, leading to angry protests around the globe and straining the economies of countries that have nothing to do with the war.“
Visual Capitalist – The New World Map the UN Wants You to Use
“On Sept. 4, 2026, the UN General Assembly adopted the “Correct the Map” resolution by a 164-1 vote, endorsing the Equal Earth projection.“
What we think
Last week we said, “The ripple effects on the local economy are yet to filter through to economic data releases, however the catalysts for further Rand strength appear to be quickly dissipating.”
The key local data this week will be inflation on Wednesday leading up to the rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. In the absence of significantly cooler inflation data, the forecast is unlikely to change based on this release.
Our range for the week: R16.05 – R16.35.
Have a great week ahead.
